Dangerously Silly Stories

We tell stories to each other—some are true, and quite believable, others not so much. Some of the stories we tell fall flat right after we tell them. Others take on a life of their own, and, as they say these days, go “viral.”

Dr. Robert J. Shiller,  the 2013  winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, has a brilliant new book out entitled, Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events.”  Come to find out, such “viral stories” can drive not only major economic events, but also mass responses to the pandemic, or the lack thereof.  

In an early example in his book of how stories, be they true or not, can go viral and influence whole communities, Shiller shares how the deadly Ebola epidemic in the Congo in 2018 spread quickly out of control. Afterwards, researchers and health workers on the ground interviewed thousands of the people affected.

According to Shiller, “Over 80% of interviewees heard that ‘Ebola does not exist,’ or ‘Ebola is fabricated for financial gain,’ or ’Ebola is fabricated to stabilize the region.’ Over 25% of the people believed this narrative. These narratives discouraged prevention measures.”   (Shiller, Narrative Economics p.23.)

Such false narratives proved deadly. 3,470 people were infected by the Ebola virus, and 2,280 of these died. (This means Ebola had a 66% fatality rate!)   

Worldwide, we now have over thirteen million covid 19 cases, rapidly approaching 14 million. (13.7 million.) Over half a million people have died from it (approximately 3.6% fatality rate).  The United States has by far the most reported cases—3.53 million, and likewise, by far, the most deaths (138,000—3.9% fatality rate).

Looking at the large differences in the rates of infection and the number of deaths here in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world, the basic cause of the U.S. failure can be directly traced to the “narratives”—the false narratives– that were early created around the virus, and then expanded and made commonplace. As with Ebola, the early Covid 19 narratives were:

• It doesn’t exist, and if it does, it’s not something U.S. people need to pay attention to.
• It’s not that dangerous
• It will come and go
• The health officials are exaggerating its prevalence
• A healthy economy is more important
• We don’t need to test
• We don’t need to trace

    After the virus continued to expand and have its deadly effects across the country, the “false narratives” expanded:

• This is a political ploy by the left to damage Donald Trump
• They are still exaggerating Covid 19’s danger and presence
• It’s an individual’s constitutional right to not wear a mask
• We still don’t need to test
• We still don’t need to trace

Again, as in the Congo, most people in the U.S. have heard these narratives, and, again as in the Congo, many believe these stories, these narratives. Let’s hope those who believe such nonsense narratives are less than 25%, as it was in the Congo, but the latest polling shows Trump’s approval rating at incredible 40%. (Incredible, at least to me,  that 40% approve!) By the way: one has no more a “constitutional right” to not wear a mask as a constitutional right to yell, “fire” in  a crowded theater, or drive on which side of the street at whatever speed you feel is appropriate for you!

Let’s be quite clear: Around the world, in country after country, scientists and health workers, health researchers have proven there is a clear, inarguable three step method to stop the spread of this virus.

1. Test

2. Trace

3. Quarantine

Yes, of course, “treating” those who are afflicted is number one. But these three steps have shown to first corral and then diminish the prevalence of the virus.

And yes, masks (#4.) and social distancing (#5) are likewise necessary. But without the testing, tracing and quarantining, these “secondary” measures may be almost impotent.

Alas, it seems that before we can implement these proven antidotes to the virus, we must address the false narratives that keep these antidotes from being widely implemented. Unfortunately, many of these false narratives have been spread by our national leaders. Fortunately, with the numbers being what they are, fewer and fewer people believe “its’ a hoax.” (Covid 19 parties among the young are no longer so fashionable!)

This is only a rough outline of the problem. What we need now—from you folks out there– are fun, bright powerful stories, metaphors, memes, cartoons, that kick the legs out from under the false narratives now so prevalent in our seemingly backward country. The truth will out, if only it is dressed in appealing fashion that makes it worth spreading. The work is afoot…